Science in the time of Fake News. We live in a time when any information that challenges
commonly held views is labeled "fake news" even if the information is true. Manipulation
of the media causes a significant portion of the population to distrust or question
the facts. Divergence of opinions fragments people into groups with opposing ideologies
that prevents society from solving problems in a unified way. The manipulation of opinions
is not a new phenomenon. It has been common for many centuries in politics, religion and science.
Fake news is a fabrication of false or misleading information. The purpose of fake news is to
create emotional reactions that override logical thinking. An angry person acts impulsively
without considering alternatives or consequences. Fake news confuses people, creates distrust,
and divides public opinion. The resulting divisiveness makes the population more vulnerable
for exploitation or further attack. The originators of fake news usually have a covert agenda
that is more easily achieved when public opinion is divided.
Galileo found that Venus went through phases like the Moon, but these phases could only
be explained if Venus went around the Sun, not the Earth. This proved that the Earth
was not the center of the universe. Galileo's discovery angered the church leaders of the
time and they tried to discredit the theory by proclaiming that heliocentrism is foolish
and absurd in philosophy and formally heretical since it contradicted the Holy Scripture.
Authorities often try to silence dissenting voices through ridicule and coercion. Galileo
was sentenced to house arrest until his death.
In 1637, René Descartes published his Discourse on the Method of Rightly Conducting One's
Reason and of Seeking Truth in the Sciences. This was a philosophical treatise that outlined
the principles of the Scientific Method. Descartes is credited as the originator of analytical
geometry. The Cartesian coordinate system is named after him. In 1663, Descartes' books
were placed on the Index of Forbidden Books and Catholics were forbidden from reading them.
The scientific method is a procedure consisting of systematic observation and characterization
of physical phenomena. The formulation of a hypothesis attempts to explain the observations.
Testing the hypotheses by experiments can confirm or reject the hypothesis. A rejected
hypothesis may be modified and tested again. The most important part of the scientific
method is that a scientific hypothesis should be testable. If a hypothesis cannot be tested
then it is not considered a scientific hypothesis.
In 1859, Charles Darwin published his book entitled "On the Origin of Species by means
of Natural Selection." The book presented evidence that the diversity of life arose through
a pattern of evolution. Darwin's ideas were ridiculed, but they were verified many
times and gained wide acceptance as fundamental scientific principles. But even today, 160
years after the publication of Darwin's book, some religious groups are still trying to
suppress teaching of evolution and trying to introduce creationism in schools in the
United States.
In 2012, Mark Boslough and 15 coauthors published their objections to the Younger Dryas impact
event. One of the objections was that the odds of an impact on the Laurentide Ice Sheet
during the specified time period are infinitesimal. The discovery of the Greenland crater in 2018
indicates that the odds may not have been so small after all. Boslough and his coauthors
stated that the proponents of the impact hypothesis had misinterpreted some of the evidence. In
other words, the proponents of the impact hypothesis did not know what they were talking
about. This is an ad hominem fallacy that casts doubt on the competence of the opposition
as a way to discredit their argument.
Accusations of misinterpretation and confusion are commonly used to discredit opponents.
Journal editors are supposed to catch these logical fallacies and ask the authors to remove
them, but this does not always happen. In this example, the authors say that people
who propose that the Carolina Bays resulted from an extraterrestrial event are simply confused.
Scientific research is difficult enough, but some popular TV programs hosted by Ancient
Astronaut Theorists propose that historical texts, archaeology, and legends contain evidence
that intelligent extraterrestrial beings visited the Earth in ancient times and interacted
with human civilization. This is pure fantasy without any supporting evidence. The programs
misguide the public because they are broadcast on the History channel whose name implies
some measure of veracity. The idea that ancient astronauts existed is not taken seriously
by most professional researchers, but the possibility of extraterrestrial technological
societies cannot be easily discarded as fake news.
Many exoplanets orbiting other stars have been found by the reduction of brightness
of the star when the planet travels in front of it. Tabby's star is unusual because it
has a long-term dimming. Many hypotheses have been proposed for the dimming, but some astronomers
have speculated that the objects eclipsing Tabby's star could be part of a megastructure
made by an advanced alien civilization to intercept some of the light for their energy
needs. Although the alien megastructure hypothesis is highly unlikely, it remains a valid subject
for scientific investigation because it is a falsifiable hypothesis.
There are several ways to detect fake news. Consider the source. Who are the authors?
Is there a date or information that it is something recycled from the past? Read past
the headline. Is there support for the claim? Is the article from a respected journal with
citations to reliable sources? Check for logical fallacies. Are the facts reported objectively?
Or, is the description distorted? Check your biases. We tend to agree with information
that confirms our own ideological leanings. Check your emotions. If the news makes you
angry, consider that it was probably designed that way. Are other news outlets reporting
the same thing? If so, check which sources were used.
Here is a list of critical thinking skills. Analysis – break a whole into parts to discover
the relationship and function of the parts. Measure and Categorize – we can get insight
into many problems by studying its characteristics. Search for Information – read relevant journals
and books to see if someone has studied the problem before. Logical Reasoning – check
what conclusions can be reached from the data that you have accumulated. Predictions – does
the data that you have collected allow you to make predictions that can be tested?
Become an independent thinker. There are many examples of how similar observations can be
used to reach different conclusions. You have to become an independent thinker to avoid
being manipulated by the popular media. How can you decide if global warming is real or
not? You can start by collecting information from reliable sources, such as the changes
in greenhouse gases, the polar ice cover changes, historical temperatures, and the relation
between carbon dioxide and temperature.
Human industrial activity that relies on burning fossil fuels, such as coal and petroleum products,
has been generating large quantities of greenhouse gases since the start of the industrial revolution
in 1750. The chart in the upper left is the famous "hockey stick" chart showing the levels
of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the last millennium and its sharp rise during the last
century. The lower chart shows the monthly mean values of carbon dioxide as a dashed
red line and the black line represents a correction for the average seasonal cycle. The variations
in carbon dioxide levels are due to photosynthesis by plants and algae.
The Arctic polar ice cap is melting. Satellite images by NASA show approximately a 20% reduction
in the Earth's minimum ice cover between 1979 and 2003. Arctic perennial sea ice has been
decreasing at a rate of 9% every ten years. At this rate, the summertime Arctic Ocean
will be ice-free before the year 2100. Some countries are already exploring the possibility
of navigating from Asia to Europe through the Arctic Ocean.
This chart shows the temperature and carbon dioxide levels over the last 450,000 years.
Do rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations cause increasing global temperatures, or is
it the other way around? Carbon dioxide seems to lag about 800 years behind the temperature
changes. This implies that increases in carbon dioxide are the result, and not the cause,
of the temperature increases. The last interglacial period from 130,000 to 115,000 years ago had
higher temperatures than we see today.
The temperature record peaks approximately every 115,000 years. From this point of view,
the current global warming is just a natural cycle of the Earth and not a man-made event.
The increase of temperature and the increase of carbon dioxide are highly correlated except
at the very end when carbon dioxide levels jump above the levels of the past 450,000
years. This jump is clearly the result of burning fossil fuels. If the Earth's temperature
rises in response to the level of carbon dioxide, humans will experience higher temperatures
than from the time they evolved approximately 200,000 years ago.
Scientists at the University of Arizona Department of Geosciences have created maps that show
areas susceptible to rises in sea level. The red area of the map shows that a 6-meter or
20-foot rise in sea level would flood Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, and the entire Florida
coastline, as well as parts of Orlando and other inland areas. A large portion of the
city of New Orleans, Louisiana is already below sea level and it is protected by flood
walls and a pumping system that failed during the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Most of New Orleans will disappear under water if the sea rises six meters.
It is evident that the polar ice caps will continue to melt, either from the Earth's
115,000-year warming cycle or from human combustion of fossil fuels. Global warming is real. There
is a large amount of water stored as ice sheets over the landmasses of Greenland and Antarctica,
and when these melt, the resulting rise in global sea level will flood many coastal areas
around the world. The Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to increase the global
sea level by 7.3 meters or 24 feet, the West Antarctic ice sheet could raise sea level
by 5.8 meters or 19 feet, and the East Antarctic ice sheet could raise the sea level globally
by 51.8 meters or 170 feet. The combined effect of melting all the ice on Greenland
and Antarctica would result in a sea level rise of 65 meters or 213 feet.
We know that this is coming.
If we are as smart as we claim to be, we should start planning for it.
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