Waching daily Jan 27 2017

Trump Orders Creation of Syria �Safe Zones�

Turkey has long sought an internationally-imposed series of �safe zones� in northern Syria

to house refugees, as a way to limit the number of refugees who actually end up crossing into

Turkey.

The White House resisted, fearing it would be too complicated, and President Trump�s

intention to shift Syria policy toward fighting ISIS made it seem like the idea was very unlikely.

Instead, President Trump made a surprise move, ordering the State Department and Pentagon

to prepare for the establishment of safe zones in Syria, giving them 90 days to provide a

full blueprint for how they would go about it.

Arguments over the theoretical viability of such safe zones centered on the question of

airspace control, with Turkey arguing the zones would be meaningless without a no fly

zone, and Pentagon officials warning at the time that would mean war with both Syria and

Russia.

During the campaign, Trump had endorsed the idea of safe zones on humanitarian grounds,

but also scorned Hillary Clinton for supporting the no-fly zone aspect, citing the concerns

about starting such huge new wars.

Trump has made clear repeatedly that he doesn�t want to go to war with Russia, though so far

it is unclear how this will work with the safe zones order.

Another complicating factor is that Turkey has conquered a significant chunk of northern

Syria in the past few months, and presumably will be loathe to demilitarize parts of its

territory if the US stops short of the no-fly zone declaration.

It is possible that the Trump Administration is underestimating the difficulty of this

move, and that the blueprints, once delivered, will sufficiently scare them away from the

idea.

That the plan was put into an executive order, however, suggests it is more than just an

attempt at quietly collecting potential options.